Abstract
In January 2022 California became the first state with a $15 minimum wage, a remarkable 87.5 percent increase over its $8 level in early 2014. In the same period, 38 California localities raised and indexed their minimum wages above the state level. These increases are considerably larger than those previously studied. Using synthetic control and event study methods, we provide the first causal analyses of the effects of these minimum wage policies– throughout the wage distribution and on the two groups most exposed to the policies: restaurant workers and teens 16 to 19. Where data allow, we estimate effects at the county level and then stack them to estimate an average California effect, thereby providing greater precision as well as insight into local effects. We find substantial and ongoing pay increases throughout the treatment period and find no significant disemployment effects, even in relatively low-wage counties.